According to Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, the Brewers have reached an agreement with free agency righty Jakob Junis (X link). The deal, which is pending a medical, includes a one-year, $7MM guarantee for the Wasserman client, according to Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Junis’ salary will be $4 million next season, with a $3 million buyout on a 2025 mutual option. He’s projected to begin the season in Milwaukee’s starting rotation.
Junis entered the open market for the first time following a quietly excellent platform performance. The 31-year-old reliever worked 86 innings in 40 appearances for the Giants last year. He posted a personal-low 3.87 ERA while striking out an above-average 26.2% of opposing batters. That was the best mark of his career, as was his swinging strike rate of 11.3%.
An increase in velocity contributed to his improved swing-and-miss performance. Junis averaged 93.7 MPH on his sinker, which was higher than the 91-92 MPH zone where his fastball has sat throughout his career. He also increased the speed of his slider, which now averages 84.2 MPH after previously ranging from 82 to 83 MPH. Increasing the speed of the slider was arguably more essential than extending the life of the fastball. Junis uses the breaking pitch at an unusual rate.
The slider has been his primary pitch for the past four seasons. He took it to new heights in 2023, using the breaker nearly 63% of the time. This did not come at the expense of the tremendous control he has demonstrated throughout his career. He walked less than 6% of opponents for the fourth time in his five MLB seasons with 40 or more innings.
Junis has performed better against same-handed hitters, as one would expect given his slider/sinker profile. Since the beginning of 2022, right-handed batters have a.254/.297/.414 line against him, striking out over a quarter of the time. Left-handed hitters have fanned at a modest 20.3% rate and posted a solid.290/.341/.494 line over that time.
When Junis pitches in relief, even if he goes multiple innings, it is easier for a manager to negotiate such platoon concerns. It could be a bigger problem as a starter, though it wouldn’t surprise if skipper Pat Murphy avoids seeing opposing lineups more than twice in a game.
That is generally how Milwaukee appears to be handling the 2024 rotation. They’ve moved on from their two co-aces. Brandon Woodruff was non-tendered after learning he needed shoulder surgery, while Corbin Burnes was moved last week. That left Freddy Peralta as the undisputed staff ace, followed by pitchers dealing with varied degrees of injury or performance issues.
Milwaukee re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea to round out the center of the roster. They took a chance on Joe Ross, who spent the majority of last season recovering from 2022 Tommy John surgery. DL Hall, a hard-throwing southpaw, returned from Baltimore with Burnes. Aaron Ashby is still attempting to carve out a rotation spot despite many injuries, including a shoulder procedure that ended his ’23 season. Robert Gasser, Jacob Misiorowski, and Carlos Rodriguez are among the upper minors’ top prospects.
Even if Junis, Ashby, and the aforementioned group of young pitchers pique interest, it’s unlikely to be the dominant rotation Milwaukee has had in recent seasons. There are few reliable sources of innings, so Murphy may have to rely heavily on his relief corps.
The $4 million compensation pushes Milwaukee’s payroll projection to roughly $105 million, according to Roster Resource. That’s far lower than last year’s estimated $119 million figure. It is uncertain whether ownership intends to duplicate last season’s spending level. If there is room on the salary, the club could use an extra bench bat and possibly another left-handed reliever to complement Hoby Milner.
Junis was ranked by MLBTR as the #47 free agent this offseason, with a two-year, $15MM guarantee. He falls short of that sum on a one-year contract. He’ll try to establish himself as a starter before entering free agency next winter in preparation for his age-32 season. The mutual option is essentially an accounting device that permits the Brewers to defer $3MM of the guarantee until the start of the next offseason. Mutual options are nearly never exercised by both parties, so Junis is extremely likely to return to the market a year from now.
