The 2024 PECOTA forecasts have been out, and Milwaukee fans are not going to be pleased with what Baseball Prospectus predicts for this season.
For the first time since 2020, PECOTA predicts Milwaukee will finish below.500 and outside of the top two places in the NL Central. The Brewers, of course, made the postseason in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, finishing 29-31 and securing the final berth in the NL.
Milwaukee last dropped below.500 in a full season in 2016 (73-89), when they also finished outside the top two in the division (fourth place).
According to this season’s forecasts, the Cardinals will win the division with a win percentage of.528, which equates to 85 or 86 wins. The Cubs are projected to finish second at 80-82, followed by the Brewers at 79-83, Cincinnati at 78-84, and Pittsburgh at 73-89.
If those results hold, the NL Central would be the league’s tightest division from top to bottom, with only 12 or 13 wins separating first and last place.
Notably, Milwaukee is still projected to make the postseason at 24.3%, trailing only Chicago at 31.2% and Cincinnati at 22.3%. The Brewers have a 12.7% chance of winning the division and an 11.6% chance of receiving a wild card place.
Last season, PECOTA projected the Crew would win the division with an 88-74 record, which was close to the actual result of 92-70. However, the Brewers lost Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes and co-ace Brandon Woodruff this summer, leaving the team with a decimated starting rotation, which was once their strength. Milwaukee did add a big bat in Rhys Hoskins, and the team is also looking ahead with major prospects Jackson Chourio, Jeferson Quero, Tyler Black, DL Hall, and Joey Ortiz well on their way to regular big-league playing time, but it remains to be seen how much of an impact those players will have in 2024.
In the rest of the league, the Dodgers and Braves are predictably the top teams by record estimates, winning almost 101 games apiece (101.1 for L.A. and 100.7 for Atlanta). Washington is projected to be the league’s poorest team, with 57.9 wins, slightly ahead of Colorado, who is slated to have 58.
