The explosive Aaron Jones and the muscular AJ Dillon have led the Green Bay Packers’ running game over the last three years. The hulking Dillon is set to enter free agency and faces an uncertain future with the team. He was drafted in the second round in 2020 and has proven to be an effective and dependable counterpuncher for Jones, as well as a valuable member of the locker room and community. On the other side, he is coming off the worst season of his career and was unable to handle the weight when Jones was injured. “AJ’s been a great member of our team,” coach Matt LaFleur stated at the end of the season. “Certainly, I believe you need to have multiple backs in this league. You have to. It’s simply the beating these
Whether that happens could come down to finances and, if the Packers are comfortable playing the waiting game, what happens in the 2024 NFL Draft. With muscle on top of muscle, the Packers were hoping they’d be getting at least a poor-man’s version of Titans star Derrick Henry. However, after averaging 5.20 yards per carry, including 3.44 yards after contact, with a missed-tackle rate of 30.9 percent in limited action as a rookie, here are Dillon’s annual numbers via the official stats, Pro Football Focus and Pro Football Reference. 2021: 4.27 yards per carry, 3.14 yards after contact, 16.0 percent missed-tackle rate, 61.0 percent success rate (4-plus yards on first down, at least half the required yards on second down, all the required yards on third or fourth down).
2022: 4.16 yards per carry, 2.90 yards after contact, 12.4 percent missed-tackle rate, 56.6 percent success rate. 2023: 3.44 yards per carry, 2.69 yards after contact, 11.8 percent missed tackle rate, 50.0 percent success rate. In 2020, Dillon forced 17 missed tackles with 55 carries. In 2023, he had 178 carries and 21 missed tackles. That’s four more missed tackles on 123 more carries.
When Jones had at least 15 carries, the Packers went 5-1 (including playoffs). He was the primary force behind the postseason charge, with five consecutive games of 100-plus rushing yards. When Dillon had 15 or more carries, the Packers went 1-4. When he had more over 50 rushing yards, the club went 1-5. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that Jones, despite his advanced age and high pay, will almost surely return, whereas Dillon’s future remains uncertain. Whether it’s Dillon, a rookie, or a combination of the two, Jones will need a backup. While Jones has been relatively healthy – from 2019 to 2022, he missed four of a possible 66 games – age and last year’s hamstring and knee ailments cannot be
