The Atlanta Braves are set to face off against the Detroit Tigers after one of their more encouraging series in a long time. The Braves’ offense scored at least six runs in four straight games for the first time all season. Other that Hurston Waldrep and Raisel Iglesias struggling, the overall pitching was good too.
On paper, this should be a good matchup for the Braves, not only in today’s game, but the entire series. The Tiger’s offense ranks twenty-third in MLB in wRC+, and since the start of June has been ranked twenty-fourth.
As far as pitching goes, their rotation as a whole has been solid, having the second best xFIP in MLB. Cy Young front-runner Tarik Skubal and his 2.82 xFIP surely helps in this category. That being said, their bullpen is a weakness ranking twentieth in xFIP.
The Braves will face off against righty Reese Olson. Don’t let his 1-8 record fool you, he has been solid for the Tigers this year. In 71.0 innings over thirteen starts, he has a 3.68 ERA, 3.26 FIP, and 1.282 WHIP. His xERA of 3.62 shows his performance has been no fluke. Fortunately for the Braves, he is not a strikeout pitcher with his 20.1 percent strikeout rate being in the bottom 32.0 percent of qualified pitchers. He also gives up a lot of hard contact with a hard-hit rate of 45.8 percent, ranking in the bottom ten percent of MLB. These two variables could spell a good matchup for the Braves.
With Olson being in his second MLB season and being in the American League, no player on the Braves has seen him more than two at-bats. Albies, Arcia, Kelenic, Olson, Riley, and d’Arnaud have all seen him in limited action. Albies is one-for-one with a double, and Arcia and Kelenic each are one-for-two.
Fortunately for the Braves, they are also bringing in a pitcher of their own that is having a great year in Max Fried. Fried currently has an ERA of 3.20 over 78.2 innings, 3.39 FIP, 1.055 WHIP, and his 6.8 hits per nine innings is tied for the lowest of his career (2020). Since April twenty-third, Fried has really ramped things up. Since then, he has had an ERA of 2.20 with hitters hitting .167 against him.
He did struggle a bit by his standards in his last start in which he gave up four ERs and six hit against a potent Baltimore offense.
Believe it or not, even with Fried being at the MLB level for eight seasons, he has never faced the Detroit Tigers. Because of this, only four players on the Tigers’ roster have ever faced him. Former Met Mark Canha has seen him the most with fourteen at-bats. He has also faced Carson Kelly, Gio Urshela, and Matt Vierling before.
Canha has had success against Fried with two HRs, .286 average, and 1.161 OPS. The other three have not been nearly as good. Kelly has a .250 average and .625 OPS, Urshela has a .333 OPS, and Vierling has a .333 average with a .744 OPS.
If Fried can shake off his performance against the Orioles, on paper this looks like it could be a fun game for the Braves. The Braves’ offense strikes out 23.1 percent of the time (twelfth highest), and at 90.3 MPH are tied with Orioles with the highest average exit velocity in MLB. With Reese Olson having a low strikeout rate, and giving up hard hits at a high rate, this could be an excellent matchup.
