The Houston Astros represent a modern-day dynasty. Despite MLB’s increasingly complex playoff structure, they have reached the American League Championship Series seven years in a row, appeared in the World Series four times, and won two championships during that time. They have won the AL West every year since 2017, with the exception of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. What goes up must come down, and there are indications that their reign may be ending shortly.
Three players from the 2017 championship squad remain on the roster, with one taking a brief detour with the New York Mets. Jose Altuve, a second baseman and potential Hall of Famer, just signed a five-year, $125 million contract extension that will take him through his age-39 season. Third baseman Alex Bregman is as consistent as ever, batting immediately behind Altuve in the lineup. Justin Verlander, the ace of the Houston pitching staff, has won two Cy Young awards since being traded from the Detroit Tigers in August 2017. He signed with the Mets as a free agency a year ago, but was shipped back to the Astros at the trading Deadline.
All three stalwarts face major questions. Altuve will be an Astro for life, and he hit.311 with a.522 slugging percentage last year despite only playing 90 games. While his bat is as powerful as ever, his sprint speed dropped from 28.1 ft/s in 2022 to 26.9 last season, and he turns 34 in May. Bregman’s age isn’t a worry right now—he turns 30 at the end of March—but 2024 is the last year of his contract. Verlander will be 41 this season, and his strikeout percentage of 21.5% is his lowest since 2015.
Nothing can sink a baseball team faster than terrible contracts, and the Astros have done well to avoid them for the majority of their legendary run. However, when first baseman José Abreu signed a year ago, he became an immediate sunk cost. He batted.237/.296/.383 in his age-36 season. The team must pay another $58.5 million over the next three years.
There is still a lot of skill in the Houston lineup. Yordan Alvarez, the designated hitter, is one of baseball’s most feared sluggers. Kyle Tucker, the right fielder, was one home run shy of a 30-30 season in 2023. Yainer Diaz emerged as one of MLB’s better-hitting catchers, with 23 home runs and a.538 slugging percentage. Jeremy Peña, a slick-fielding shortstop, has achieved 8.7 WAR in two seasons (according to Baseball-Reference). With Altuve and Bregman, they should be among the best run-scoring teams again in 2024.
While their offense remains excellent, their starting pitching has fallen toward the middle of the pack. Verlander is no longer as dominant as he once was, especially with Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton in the rotation. Left-hander Framber Valdez is a dependable number-two starter who has thrown 399 1/3 innings and made two All-Star teams since 2022, but Cristian Javier’s ERA jumped more than two runs from 2.54 to 4.56 last season. Hunter Brown underwhelmed with a 5.09 ERA in his first full season, and while J.P. France surprised with a 3.83 ERA, his underlying analytics do not support a repeat performance, particularly his low 17.4% strikeout rate.
