In 2023, the Atlanta Braves offense was historic in terms of power, hitting a record-tying 307 home runs and setting a new MLB high for a franchise.501 slugging percentage.
However, in 2024, they will have an opportunity to do even better.
According to Baseball Reference’s Stathead database, only one MLB team in history has had more than 200 home runs and 200 steals in the same season: the 1996 Colorado Rockies. With aid from current and former Braves coaches Walt Weiss and Eric Young Sr., the 1996 Rockies had four different hitters with 30 or more home runs and six double-digit base stealers. Young led the team with 53 thefts, while Andrés Gallaraga hit 47 home runs for a club that finished at 83-79 and in third place.
But this season, Atlanta could be the second to accomplish the feat.
Let’s look at what needs to happen for Atlanta to reach that milestone in 2024.
Atlanta should easily clear the bar from a power perspective
Atlanta appears to be set in terms of power, with Jarred Kelenic replacing Eddie Rosario and Kevin Pillar in the lineup after hitting 307 bombs last season (despite missing out on more from Ronald Acuña Jr and Matt Olson).
Even with some fundamental regression, his more than 200 home runs appear to be a given on this roster. 21 players in all of baseball have 250 hit balls with an EV50 of 103.3 mph or higher. Atlanta has six of the top 21 players, including Ronald Acuña Jr (106.4), who is ranked second in baseball, and Matt Olson (104.8, 6th).
No other MLB team presently has more than two such players; Philadelphia is the only team with more than one, with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, however the combo of DH JD Martinez and 3B Matt Chapman, who are also free agents, might increase that number.
(EV50 is the average of the hardest 50% of a hitter’s batted ball events, a newer Statcast measure that better depicts overall power in a hitter’s profile than average exit velocity.)
To provide perspective for the lineup additions and subtractions, Jarred Kelenic’s 101.5 EV50 from Seattle replaces Eddie Rosario’s 98.6 and Kevin Pillar’s 98.4. (Pillar fell short of the required 2.1 PAs per team game to qualify for the leaderboards.)
Will Atlanta run enough to get 200 stolen bags?
This is the area where Atlanta’s chances of tying the Rockies are slim unless significant developments occur.
Yes, the Braves stole 132 bases in the first year under the new regulations, ranking among the top 10 in the league. Acuña accounted for 73 bags alone, indicating unequal labor distribution. The rest of the squad had only two players reach double digits, with Michael Harris II (20) and Ozzie Albies (13) being the only ones with more than nine stolen bases.
So, aside from the obvious “run a lot more”, what else has to happen for Atlanta to greatly increase their stolen bases?
Yes, it will come down to hitting the trigger on a steal more regularly, but personnel adjustments also
While new leftfielder Jarred Kelenic had almost the same sprint speed as the now-departed Eddie Rosario (28.0 ft/sec for Kelenic vs 27.9 for Rosario), Kelenic is a far stronger baserunner than Rosario, who was below-average in Baserunning Run Value according to MLB Statcast.
Forrest Wall, the Braves’ default fourth outfielder at this point in spring training, has the potential to be the team’s quickest player and is a big baserunning upgrade over Kevin Pillar and the rest of the Braves bench last season.
Atlanta should be more active on the basepaths as a result of these roster changes, as well as better health for Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies. Harris attempted 19 of his 24 stolen base attempts after June 7th, when he was both feeling better after early season back and leg injuries, and after Marcell Ozuna delivered a key pep talk to the young outfielder.
If all goes well, Atlanta may have four regulars with double-digit steals and one vital backup in Wall, a prolific minor league basestealer. Wall stole 52 bags in 60 attempts for Gwinnett past season in only 90 games, setting a Gwinnett record.
The various projection systems of FanGraphs do not like Atlanta’s prospects of breaking 200 thefts.
With the proviso that projection algorithms are typically conservative, the majority of them see Atlanta coming in well under 200 steals.
Using the Depth Charts forecasts, which are a blend of the ZiPS and Steamer projection engine results adjusted for predicted playing time, Atlanta is expected to finish with only 121 steals in 2024, an eleven-bag decrease from the previous season.
Acuña leads the club with 53 stolen bases, followed by Harris II (24), Kelenic (14), and Albies (12). No one else receives enough playing time or runs to reach double digits, let alone actual stolen bases.
So, does Atlanta have a 200/200 season in the tank?
It appears unlikely, given where we are in late February. But never say never – Ronald has stated that he expects to continue stealing bases from the leadoff spot, drawing similarities to Oakland A’s great Rickey Henderson, and there is a clear route to improved contributions from Harris, Albies, Kelenic, and Wall, bringing Atlanta closer to 200.
But it seems like a daunting endeavor.
