Last season, the Yankees were a catastrophe by Yankee standards, winning only 82 games and placing fourth for the first time since 1992. Though they weren’t officially eliminated from postseason contention until September 24, their chances fell below 10% in early August and never recovered. They effectively spent the last two months playing out the string. What about the word “disaster?” It was not ours. Brian Cashman spearheaded efforts to court Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who ultimately chose the Dodgers.
The vibes might not be favorable, especially since the slumbering Orioles have finally made some moves. So imagine our surprise when we looked at FanGraphs’ projected standings for 2024 and saw that the Yankees were not only rated highly, but were deemed good, with a.549 winning percentage, which was significantly higher than last year’s.503.
Projections are not forecasts, and nothing is guaranteed, particularly with numerous high-profile free agents still on the market. But the figures have proven beneficial, and as we wait for Spring Training camps to begin, it’s a good opportunity to investigate why the databases appear to favor the Yankees over, say, Sal from Yonkers ringing into WFAN.”Fans are way too optimistic about teams when everything goes well,” wrote projector Dan Szymborski, when setting out his own Yankees projections, “and way too pessimistic after things have gone wrong.”That is totally right. What happened last year has little bearing on what occurs this year, especially given roster change and the consequences of injuries, and as horrible as last season was, New York did not finish with a losing record. So, what are the stats like this time? Even if we don’t completely agree with them, it’s important to understand why they are saying what they are.
